NFL Wild Card Round Pulse: Tips and Picks Across the Sports Media Industry
Delivering quick insights, curated from experts and insiders from outlets such as CBS, ESPN, The Athletic, USA Today, SB Nation, and more.
Welcome to this week’s NFL Pulse, your ultimate source for expert NFL picks, predictions, and in-depth analysis from professionals across the media industry. Whether you're a fan or a seasoned bettor, we’re here to offer concise insights and overviews for each game, ensuring you're well-informed throughout this thrilling NFL season.
Betting Terminology (learn more here):
SU = Straight Up Winner
ATS = Against the [Points] Spread
Total = Over or Under Total Points
% = Industry Consensus
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans • 1/13 @ 4:30pm
• Winner: Cleveland Browns (60%)
• Spread: Cleveland Browns -2 (58%)
• Total Points: Under 44.5 (52%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “This is the veteran quarterback Joe Flacco against the rookie sensation in C.J. Stroud. Flacco gets the edge because he has the better defense. The Browns will be able to pressure Stroud to limit him some. I think Flacco, who has been good in the playoffs in his career, will be good in this one. The Browns will win it."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Cleveland Browns
2023-24 Season Record: 141-110-4 (56%)
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs • 1/13 @ 8:00pm
• Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (82%)
• Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (56%)
• Total Points: Under 44 (62%)
John Breech, CBS Sports - “As I mentioned, these two teams played back in Week 9 and the Chiefs won even though Patrick Mahomes threw for under 200 yards. A big reason the Chiefs won is because their defense absolutely shut down Tua Tagovailoa, who threw for just 193 yards. If the Dolphins are going to win this time around, Tua is going to have to play a nearly perfect game, and I'm not sure that's going to be possible because this game is going to feature his personal kryptonite: cold weather.
Actually, it's not just Tua's personal kryptonite, It's pretty much the entire team. Since the start of the 2017 season, the Dolphins are 0-10 when the kickoff temperature is below 40 degrees, which is not ideal this week.
The forecast for Saturday is currently calling for a kickoff temperature that will be under 15 degrees. The problem for the Dolphins is that there's no way to simulate that kind of weather in practice unless they rent a football field-sized freezer, but I don't think that exists.
Over the course of his career, Tua has made four starts when the temperature is under 45 at kickoff, and he's gone 0-4 in those games. We're not even talking 15 degrees here; we're talking 45 degrees, which is practically beach weather in places like Canada.
In those four losses, Tua has had a passer rating of just 71.8 while completing just 55.5% of his passes, which are both well under his career averages of 97.1 and 66.9%. He's turned the ball over five times in those games, compared to just four TD passes.
Tua's favorite weapon is Tyreek Hill, and if the Chiefs proved anything in the first meeting between these two teams, it's that they know how to slow down Hill better than any other team in the NFL. If this game were being played in Miami, I'd think about picking the Dolphins, but since it's being played in the Arctic Circle, I have no choice but to take the Chiefs."
John Breech's Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
2023-24 Season Record: 81-54-0 (60%)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills • 1/14 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Buffalo Bills (98%)
• Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 (57%)
• Total Points: Over 33.5 (61%)
Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports - “At this point, I'm buying that the wind in Buffalo will be unbearable. That's why the total moved from 43 to 35.5 earlier this week. That's a massive shift.
That could help the Steelers. If there are 50 mph gusts, that is brutal for both offenses. Josh Allen might be better equipped to throw it in those conditions than Mason Rudolph, but it also affects Allen's effectiveness. And that's what the Bills rely on each week.
This game could be ugly. And it's hard to lay double-digit points in an ugly, low-scoring game."
Frank Schwab's Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers cover the +10 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 69-55-5 (53%)
Prop Pick
Josh Inglis, Covers - “Josh Allen is the likeliest TD scorer in Orchard Park on Sunday, but I don’t want anything to do with his -115 TD odds. However, the Najee Harris odds of +230 to score are something I’ll kindly take a piece of.
He is currently dealing with a knee injury, but that is something that has been consistent mid-week since Week 14. He’ll be fine and suit up for a likely heavy role.
The drop from 42.5 to 35 in the total is certainly giving some value to the TD price that closed at +110 last week. The Steelers are a big dog in this game, but wind and snow will create an increase in the total rushing volume, and anything near the goal line with be Harris’ ball.
Since his Week 6 bye, he has had eight rushing TDs over 12 games and is averaging 16 carries per game, which is a Top-10 mark. Jaylen Warren is not stealing many of the carries and the red-zone work has been dominated by Harris, who has 18 red-zone carries over his last two games, accounting for 34% of all his carries.
The Bills are on a 5-0 SU run but have the worst rush defense over that stretch in both EPA/carry and success rate. Pittsburgh will play very conservatively and I don’t see the Bills running up the score with the weather while facing the better rushing team.
Over the last three games, Pittsburgh ran the ball at the highest rate in football at 60.4%. Harris will be busy Sunday. If Pittsburgh’s offense scores, there is a better than 50% chance it’s Harris.”
Josh Inglis’ Pick: Najee Harris Anytime TD (+230)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys • 1/14 @ 4:30pm
• Winner: Dallas Cowboys (92%)
• Spread: Green Bay Packers +7 (53%)
• Total Points: Over 50.5 (58%)
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer - “On one hand, it’s terrifying to take the Cowboys because you’re betting against Love, who’s been hot, and you’re relying on Mike McCarthy in a big spot, which is never ideal. On the other, it’s terrifying to take the Packers because it just seems so likely that Prescott is going to carve up Joe Barry’s defense, and the Cowboys have been so dominant at home.
I went back and forth but ultimately decided to take the points. The Packers were a consistently competitive team once they found their way. In their last 10 games, they went 7-3 and had only one loss of more than four points. I really like how their offense has looked and think they can score enough to keep this one close."
Sheil Kapadia's Pick: Green Bay Packers cover the +7 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 74-71-5 (49%)
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions • 1/14 @ 8:15pm
• Winner: Detroit Lions (53%)
• Spread: Los Angeles Rams +3 (61%)
• Total Points: Over 51.5 (64%)
Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports - “Sam LaPorta's knee injury was the key talking point after the Lions played their starters in Week 18. That allowed the defense's issues to fly under the radar.
The Lions' secondary is not playing well. Minnesota Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens played twice against the Lions in the past three weeks, and he had 807 passing yards. Yes, that Nick Mullens. In Week 17, Dak Prescott threw for 345 against Detroit. Now the Lions have to face a rested Matthew Stafford, rested Cooper Kupp and record-breaking rookie Puka Nacua (and a rested Kyren Williams on the ground).
Detroit's crowd will be great and that might make a big difference. The Lions are a good team even if LaPorta doesn't play (though it's looking like he has a good chance to). But the Rams seem set up to get a lot of yards and points. Los Angeles has a shot at the upset. It's a bad matchup for Detroit."
Frank Schwab's Pick: Los Angeles Rams cover the +3 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 69-55-5 (53%)
Prop Pick
Josh Inglis, Covers - “Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell told reporters that TE Sam LaPorta has "an outside shot" at playing on Sunday after hyperextending his knee in Week 18, but it certainly comes off more pessimistic than optimistic. The rookie didn’t practice on Wednesday and is starting to look doubtful. The TD markets are suggesting the same.
Backup Brock Wright has missed three straight games but was back in full at practice on Wednesday and could be the starting TE on Sunday in a game with the biggest total of Wild Card weekend at 51.5. It’s also an indoor game compared to many of the other outdoor contests that will be severely affected by the weather.
The Brock Wright odds can be had at +600 for a TD this week but the markets are falling and will plummet more if LaPorta misses Thursday, too. I’d be thrilled with the +600, but even at +400 or better, this is still a play for me.
Detroit had the ninth-highest TE target share at 23.7% on the year, while the Rams ranked as the second-worst team at defending the position. They allowed an average of 4.8 receptions, 58.1 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game to opposing TEs.
This is a perfect case of getting ahead of the market as some books are as short as +220. If LaPorta doesn’t play, this will close around +250 to +300. If he does play, it won’t move much north of +600. Third-stringer James Mitchell is currently +400 but has just two targets on the season. There’s hidden value in LaPorta’s possible absence and Wright returning to the lineup.
It's a half-unit for me considering the slight risk.”
Josh Inglis’ Pick: Brock Wright Anytime TD at 0.5 units (+600)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers • 1/15 @ 8:15pm
• Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (56%)
• Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (54%)
• Total Points: Under 43.5 (52%)
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer - “This is a tough one to pick, given the injury situations on both sides. Hurts is dealing with a finger injury and was a limited practice participant on Thursday. Brown hurt his knee in Week 18, and he didn’t practice at all on Thursday. Those are obviously two big ones to keep an eye on. Mayfield, meanwhile, is dealing with ankle and rib injuries and did not practice on Thursday.
Other than Troy Aikman complaining about how he once again got stuck calling a game with such little juice, I’m not sure of anything in this matchup. But I keep coming back to the Eagles defense. They can’t rush the passer. They can’t stop the run. They can’t cover. They’re taking direction from Matt Patricia. And everyone seems generally confused about what they’re supposed to be doing. Maybe they create a couple of turnovers and the Eagles offense and special teams lead the way. But I just can’t take this team as road favorites after what my eyes have seen in recent weeks."
Sheil Kapadia's Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover the +3 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 74-71-5 (49%)
Prop Pick
Josh Inglis, Covers - “Chris Godwin and Mike Evans finished with identical 41% red-zone target shares this year with 16 targets each. Evans had one more reception but finished with five red-zone TDs to Godwin’s one.
The latter might not have as many scores as Evans, but his opportunities are nearly the same so there shouldn’t be a 150-point difference in their TDs — but there is.
Evans is as short as -152 and as long as +114 for a score vs. the much better high on the Chris Godwin odds of +275. They share nearly identical target shares at 23.6% for Godwin and 24.7% for Evans, so there isn’t a huge difference in their volume. Evans does run the longer routes, but the price is too big of a difference for that.
Tampa’s passing game has one of the best matchups in the playoffs. The Eagles finished as one of three teams that allowed 25 or more points per game on the season and were the No. 31 defense in EPA/play since Week 11. They also allowed the second-most receptions per game at 25.0 and 2.1 passing TDs per game, which was only better than the Commanders.
Philadelphia starting safety Reed Blankenship exited Week 18 with a groin injury and is likely questionable ahead of practice on Thursday, while corner Darius Slay has missed four straight games with a knee injury.
The Buccaneers are also dogs, which could mean a bump in passing game script. There is a lot to like with a Godwin TD at +275, and the probability between him and Evans scoring isn’t as big as the odds are suggesting.”
Josh Inglis’ Pick: Chris Godwin Anytime TD (+275)
We hope you enjoy this week’s games and see you again next Sunday!
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Until next time,
Team TS