NFL Week 18 & CFB National Championship Pulse: Tips and Picks Across the Sports Media Industry
Delivering quick insights, curated from experts and insiders from outlets such as CBS, ESPN, The Athletic, USA Today, SB Nation, and more.
Welcome to this week’s NFL & CFB Pulse, your ultimate source for expert NFL & CFB picks, predictions, and in-depth analysis from professionals across the media industry. Whether you're a fan or a seasoned bettor, we’re here to offer concise insights and overviews for each game, ensuring you're well-informed throughout these thrilling NFL & CFB seasons.
Betting Terminology (learn more here):
SU = Straight Up Winner
ATS = Against the [Points] Spread
Total = Over or Under Total Points
% = Industry Consensus
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints • 1/7 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: New Orleans Saints (88%)
• Spread: New Orleans Saints -3 (82%)
• Total Points: Under 42 (69%)
Brooke Cersosimo, NFL Network - “Derek Carr has elevated his play in the last month to help the Saints win three of their last four games. He could be without Alvin Kamara, but his budding rapport with Juwan Johnson -- paired with the playmaking ability of Chris Olave and Taysom Hill -- bodes well for New Orleans in this high-stakes matchup which will take place in a rockin' Superdome. The Saints' defense must find ways to slow Atlanta's dynamic backfield and keep Taylor Heinicke (or Desmond Ridder if the vet isn't healthy) uncomfortable in the pocket. This comes down to QB play, and New Orleans has the big advantage right now."
Brooke Cersosimo's Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
2023-24 Season Record: 198-158-8 (56%)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals • 1/7 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Cincinnati Bengals (77%)
• Spread: Cleveland Browns +7 (57%)
• Total Points: Under 37 (64%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “The Browns are locked in as the No. 5 seed, which means they might rest players here. The Bengals are eliminated, but they should play here against their rival in the last game of the year. This a tough one to pick, but I will go with the Bengals in a close one as the Browns will be looking ahead to more important things."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
2023-24 Season Record: 137-113-5 (55%)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans • 1/7 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars (89%)
• Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 (61%)
• Total Points: Over 41 (51%)
John Breech, CBS Sports - “The problem for the Titans here is that if you want to beat the Jaguars, you really need to be able to throw the ball. The Jags rank near the bottom of the NFL when it comes to stopping the pass, but the Titans aren't exactly built to take advantage of that. The Titans are averaging just 182.2 passing yards per game, which ranks 28th in the league. Of course, this is Week 18 and crazy things always seem to happen in Week 18. Every year, there always seems to be one crazy upset that no one saw coming. However, I don't think we're going to see that upset in this game."
John Breech's Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
2023-24 Season Record: 72-47-0 (61%)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions • 1/7 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Detroit Lions (90%)
• Spread: Detroit Lions -3.5 (82%)
• Total Points: Under 46 (51%)
Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports - “Dan Campbell doesn't seem like the type of coach that would rest anyone. And he said he wouldn't sit players this week because Detroit has a small shot at the No. 2 seed. They need the Cowboys or Eagles to both lose, but those NFC East teams play late while Detroit plays early. So it's not like Campbell will have the option of scoreboard watching to base his strategy on what's happening with the Cowboys and Eagles. The Vikings are still alive for a playoff spot but barely, and are changing quarterbacks again back to Nick Mullens. I'll trust that Campbell will play this game normally."
Frank Schwab's Pick: Detroit Lions cover the -3.5 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 60-49-5 (55%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “Betting on the Minnesota Vikings — and QB Nick Mullens' odds — over the past few weeks has been a refreshing experience.
Yeah yeah, I know he was benched to start last week, but thankfully HC Kevin O'Connell came to his senses at halftime and reinstalled the journeyman, while naming him the Week 18 starter against the Detroit Lions.
Why has Mullens been fun to watch? Because he's a classic backup gunslinger: He hucks it (a lot), it's often not pretty, and a few passes are guaranteed to go to the wrong jersey... but at the end of the day the stats are there — which is all us prop bettors care about right?
While he managed just 113 second-half yards last week (in a game that was already over by the time he entered), he threw for more than 700 yards in Weeks 15 and 16 combined — including 411 yards two weeks ago against these same Lions.
Except then, the Lions needed to win; Week 18 doesn't mean much for Detroit as it's already clinched the division and likely can't move any higher than its current No. 3 spot. Minnesota still has an outside chance at the playoffs with a win, so they will surely be more motivated than the Lions, who could also see some defensive players rested.
Plus, there's also the simple fact that Detroit's secondary straight-up stinks.
Take away two games against the super run-happy Bears, and the Lions have allowed 306.2 passing yards per game over the last two months, including 345 to Dallas last week and the aforementioned 411 to Mullens two Sundays ago.
Projection models range as high as 295 for Mullens on Sunday, with a consensus of 277 yards. I'm expecting the veteran to go out with a bang in a must-win game against an unmotivated opponent and go past his yardage total (and possibly flirt with 300+ yards) for the third straight start.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: Nick Mullens Over 265.5 pass yards
New York Jets at New England Patriots • 1/7 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: New England Patriots (71%)
• Spread: New England Patriots -1.5 (67%)
• Total Points: Under 30 (54%)
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer - “This is one of the few games with no playoff implications. The Jets, who are expected to start Trevor Siemian at quarterback, are currently slated to pick eighth in the draft, which should position them to add some much-needed offensive line help.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are currently slated to pick third, but that could change. Right now, they have the same record as the Commanders (4-12), who own the no. 2 pick. The tiebreaker is strength of schedule. The team that faced the easier schedule gets the higher pick. Right now, that’s Washington, but it’s really close—the difference between an opponent’s winning percentage of .515 and .518. That means if both the Commanders and Patriots lose, the draft order for the second and third picks could be determined by other games in Week 18. What a fun subplot!
But you know what? I don’t think it’ll come down to that. Bill Belichick is not losing to the Jets in what could be his final game as the Patriots head coach."
Sheil Kapadia's Pick: New England Patriots cover the -1.5 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 66-63-5 (51%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers • 1/7 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (96%)
• Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (83%)
• Total Points: Over 36.5 (56%)
John Breech, CBS Sports - “The Panthers are easily the worst team in the NFL, so I'm not going to waste too much time here because I think we all know who I'm going to pick to win this game. The Buccaneers will clinch the NFC South title with a win and when you have a chance to clinch a division title, the Panthers are definitely the team you want to be playing. That being said, if the Buccaneers somehow end up choking this game away, that means the winner of the Saints-Falcons game will win the NFC South, but unfortunately for those two teams, I don't think Tampa Bay will be choking this game away."
John Breech's Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023-24 Season Record: 72-47-0 (61%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one win away from clinching the NFC South — which seems highly likely against the 2-14 Carolina Panthers — and in a must-win game, I'm looking at Mike Evans odds, as Tampa's star WR is the model of consistency.
This is his 10th straight season topping 1,000 receiving yards, but he's actually had his best season in years — he already has his highest yardage total since 2018 and while he's logged 13+ TD in three of his last four campaigns, one more touchdown will tie his single-season career high, set two years ago.
It's that touchdown that is the apple of my eye as well, as some outlets have an Evans TD as short as -190... but you find it at even money at FanDuel.
Evans has been on a scoring binge, finding paydirt in six of his last eight games overall, and he has logged a TD in six of eight home games this season. His 13 receiving touchdowns leads all NFL wide receivers and he gets to face a Panthers secondary that has been solid this season but limps into the season finale.
Carolina No. 1 CB Jaycee Horn is likely out again as he's still limited in practice with a toe injury, while slot CB Troy Hill is also questionable as he's still in concussion protocol. That means the 6-foot-5 Evans could likely see a lot of Donte Jackson (who is 5-foot-10 and ranks outside the Top 40 in catch rate and yards per coverage snap per Pro Football Focus) or Shaquil Griffin, who is still undersized at 6-foot even and grades even worse than Jackson in coverage.
That height advantage should be especially useful in the red zone, where Carolina has allowed the second-most red zone TDs and has the fifth-worst RZTD% — and Evans leads the Bucs with a near-30% target share inside the opponent's 20.
The potential for a blowout, and a lack of action for Evans later in the game, dissuades me from taking the Over on his receiving yards total, but the value of his TD prop is much more appetizing, considering he'll for sure be involved in the first 30-45 minutes of this game.
You could also look at Evans to score a first-half touchdown if you wanted to get extra frisky, which is priced at +240.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: Mike Evans anytime touchdown (+100 FanDuel odds)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers • 1/7 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Green Bay Packers (68%)
• Spread: Green Bay Packers -3 (54%)
• Total Points: Over 45 (54%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “It's simple for the Packers: Win and they are in the playoffs. They are coming off an impressive victory over the Vikings, but this won't be easy. The Bears have played good football down the stretch, with Justin Fields playing well. But I think Jordan Love will play better. The Packers take it."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Green Bay Packers
2023-24 Season Record: 137-113-5 (55%)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders • 1/7 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Dallas Cowboys (97%)
• Spread: Washington Commanders +13 (56%)
• Total Points: Over 46.5 (63%)
Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports - “Now that the Cowboys have a clear path to the NFC East title, you'd think they will blow out Washington. But Washington could be excited to spoil Dallas' hopes. The Commanders know this is likely Ron Rivera's final game and I'd think they'll play hard for him. This seems like a game that will be much closer than anyone expects."
Frank Schwab's Pick: Washington Commanders cover the +13 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 60-49-5 (55%)
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders • 1/7 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Las Vegas Raiders (86%)
• Spread: Las Vegas Raiders -3 (77%)
• Total Points: Under 37 (59%)
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer - “Both teams are out of playoff contention, but as mentioned earlier, the outcome of this game could have real meaning for other teams. If the Steelers and Jaguars both lose, the outcome of this game, based on tiebreakers, will determine which of those teams gets into the playoffs. The Steelers would get in with a Broncos win, and the Jaguars would get in with a Raiders win. I really, really hope it comes down to that.
Raiders players really seem to be enjoying their experience with interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Give me Vegas."
Sheil Kapadia's Pick: Las Vegas Raiders cover the -2.5 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 66-63-5 (51%)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers • 1/7 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (60%)
• Spread: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (70%)
• Total Points: Over 35 (54%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “The Chiefs are in the playoffs, so they will play next week. So who plays this week? Does Patrick Mahomes play? The Chargers are heading to an offseason of change, but with Easton Stick playing here it won't matter who plays for the Chiefs. They still win it."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
2023-24 Season Record: 137-113-5 (55%)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers • 1/7 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: San Francisco 49ers (67%)
• Spread: Los Angeles Rams +4 (50%)
• Total Points: Over 41 (51%)
John Breech, CBS Sports - “No game has me more confused in Week 18 than this one. The 49ers have already clinched the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, which means they literally have nothing to play for in this game. I know that, you know that, and Kyle Shanahan knows that, which is why I could see them resting their starters. On the other hand, Shanahan is facing the same dilemma as John Harbaugh: If he rests his starters here, then they'll go three weeks without playing and I can't imagine that he likes that idea.
As for the Rams, they've already clinched a playoff spot, so this game only matters for seeding purposes. If they win, they'll lock up the sixth seed, but if they lose, they could end up as the seventh seed, although there's a chance that they could get the sixth seed anyway with a loss.
The Rams are one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL when they're fully healthy and I think Sean McVay is going to want a fully healthy team heading into the playoffs, so I won't be surprised if he sits some of his key starters against the 49ers. As you can see, picking games in Week 18 is like playing drunken craps at 4 a.m. in Las Vegas: You think you know what you're doing, but you don't. I have no idea if the 49ers will be resting their starters and I have no idea if the Rams will be resting their starters, which means I have no idea who's going to win. I'm going to say the Rams mail this one in and the 49ers will coast to an easy win, even though they won't have Christian McCaffrey on the field."
John Breech's Pick: San Francisco 49ers
2023-24 Season Record: 72-47-0 (61%)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants • 1/7 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (95%)
• Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (73%)
• Total Points: Over 42 (66%)
Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports - “How can you trust the Eagles right now? They seem to be falling apart at the seams. The Giants probably should have beat the Rams last week, and the Rams are playing better than the Eagles lately."
Frank Schwab's Pick: New York Giants cover the +4.5 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 60-49-5 (55%)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals • 1/7 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Seattle Seahawks (76%)
• Spread: Seattle Seahawks -3 (71%)
• Total Points: Under 47.5 (52%)
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer - “The Seahawks need a win and a Packers loss to get into the playoffs. Unfortunately for Seattle, the defense is playing its worst football of the season. Seattle is currently 24th in defensive DVOA and 27th in weighted defensive DVOA. Pete Carroll has tried over and over to fix that side of the ball, but the Seahawks defense has consistently been mediocre or below average the past five or six seasons.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, went up and down the field last week against the Eagles. They drove inside the Philadelphia 25-yard line on all seven of their true possessions (not counting the two-play sequence before halftime). Arizona didn’t punt in the game. It had four touchdowns, two field goals, and one interception that was the result of a quarterback and wide receiver miscommunication. It was just a really impressive offensive performance by the Cardinals.
I’m torn here but trying to avoid recency bias. The Cardinals lost four of five before last week and have the NFL’s worst defense. I think it gets messy, but the Seahawks get it done."
Sheil Kapadia's Pick: Seattle Seahawks cover the -3 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 66-63-5 (51%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “I know, my lede said I'm going to focus on teams with someone to play for — and the Arizona Cardinals are in the exact opposite of that situation — but a matchup with the Seattle Seahawks abysmal run defense is just too good to pass up to not bet on running back James Conner odds, specifically his longest run, which is set at 16.5 yards.
One of the most surprising developments of the season is Conner's resurgence as a top-tier running back: He's second among qualifying RBs in average yards after contact (3.78), fifth in yards per game (74.2), seventh in yards per carry (4.9), and is sixth in runs of 10+ yards and third in runs of 20+ yards — despite missing four games!
He needs 110 yards on Sunday to mark his first 1,000-yard season, and while he definitely can reach that — or at least top his rushing yardage prop of 69.5 — with a full workload against the Seahawks (more on them in a second), there's always a chance that he could cede carries to the likes of Michael Carter and Emari Demercado this week (to keep everyone healthy/give them one final look this season), so I think it's the safer play is to take Conner to break off at least one big chunk run.
He has broken off a 22+ yard run in three of his last four games, with the one failure being a long run of only 16 yards against a now-stout Bears run defense, and he's logged a run of at least 14 yards in nine of his last 11 outings.
Conner, however, gets a boost from facing Seattle, which just allowed 202 rushing yards to the Steelers last week and has hemorrhaged a whopping 170 rushing yards per game (and 5.0 yards/carry) over its previous six contests.
I like Conner to get 70+ yards, and if you want to sprinkle a quarter-unit on 100+ yards (in the +310 range) behind his quest for 1K narrative, I don't dislike it, but my preferred (and most risk-averse) play is for him to break off at least one more big run against this sieve of a defense.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: James Conner longest rush Over 16.5 yards
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins • 1/7 @ 8:20pm
• Winner: Buffalo Bills (72%)
• Spread: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (64%)
• Total Points: Over 48.5 (55%)
John Breech, CBS Sports - “The NFL is saving its best for last. The final regular-season game of the 2023 season will feature the Bills playing the Dolphins with the AFC East title on the line. There could also be some extra drama in this game if both the Jaguars and Steelers win in Week 18: If that happens, then the Bills will be in a situation where a win gives them the division title, but a loss LEAVES them OUT of the playoffs altogether.
I repeat: The Bills could be in a spot where a win gives them the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but a loss would drop them COMPLETELY out of the playoffs. On the Dolphins' end, they don't have to worry about getting left out, because they've already clinched a playoff spot. Going into this game, the Dolphins know they'll get the two seed with a win or the sixth seed with a loss.
The thing about the Dolphins is that if they could have hand-picked their opponent for this game, I'm pretty sure the Bills would have been their last choice. The Dolphins are 1-10 in their past 11 games against the Bills and that's mostly because they can't figure how to slow down Josh Allen.
The Bills quarterback has thrown at least TWO touchdown passes in his past 12 games against the Dolphins, which is the longest streak by any QB against one team in NFL history. Back in Week 4, Allen threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-20 win over the Dolphins and I won't be surprised if he doubles those numbers on Sunday night.
The Dolphins could go all-in to try and stop the pass, but that could actually make things worse considering the Bills are averaging 130.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranks seventh in the NFL. The Dolphins have played three teams this season against teams that rank in the top-seven in rushing yards and not only have they gone 0-3 in those games, but they've been outscored by an average score of 45 to 18.6.
The Bills are one of the hottest teams in football, they haven't lost in more than a month and there's no team Josh Allen loves beating more than Miami. The Dolphins are banged up right now and they just lost Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL and I think what I'm trying to say here is that I don't feel good about Miami's chances this week."
John Breech's Pick: Buffalo Bills
2023-24 Season Record: 72-47-0 (61%)
CFB National Championship - Washington Vs. Michigan • 1/8 @ 7:30 pm
• Winner: Washington Huskies (75%)
• Spread: Washington Huskies +4.5 (89%)
• Total Points: Under 56.5 (60%)
Joe Tansey, Bleacher Report - “Monday's title game has the potential to be the closest CFB Playoff National Championship since Alabama beat Georgia in overtime in 2018.
Washington's offense can go head-to-head with any program in the country and its defensive showings over the last two games proved it can compete on that side of the ball in addition to its strong offense.
The Huskies have not seen an offense as run heavy as Michigan, and conversely, the Wolverines have not faced a passing offense quite like Washington's.
It may take a few possessions for each defense to figure out the opponent, and that could lead to some early scoring on each end.
Washington has not been blown out this season, and with Penix at the helm, it will have a chance to win, but Michigan's line-of-scrimmage control could be the X-factor in how many points the Huskies put up.”
Joe Tansey's Pick: Michigan Wolverines 31-28
We hope you enjoy this week’s games and see you again next Sunday!
Have any questions or feedback? Shoot us a note at hello@tallysight.com or @tallysight on X. We’d love to hear from you!
Until next time,
Team TS