NFL Week 17 Pulse: Tips and Picks Across the Sports Media Industry
Delivering quick insights, curated from experts and insiders from outlets such as CBS, ESPN, The Athletic, USA Today, SB Nation, and more.
Welcome to this week’s NFL Pulse, your ultimate source for expert NFL picks, predictions, and in-depth analysis from professionals across the media industry. Whether you're a fan or a seasoned bettor, we’re here to offer concise insights and overviews for each game, ensuring you're well-informed throughout this thrilling NFL season.
Betting Terminology (learn more here):
SU = Straight Up Winner
ATS = Against the [Points] Spread
Total = Over or Under Total Points
% = Industry Consensus
If you want to check out the latest odds, click the link below!
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (98%)
• Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -12 (54%)
• Total Points: Under 48 (53%)
Brooke Cersosimo, NFL Network - “The Eagles have been working out the kinks for, well, too long, and it's bound to catch up to them. But not yet. Philly's struggling defense has an opportunity for that get-right game against Kyler Murray, who has underwhelmed in his return, logging career lows in many passing and rushing categories. I also expect to see a heavy dose of D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell against Arizona's 32nd-ranked run D -- which should allow the pass game to open up for Jalen Hurts to potentially force feed a disgruntled A.J. Brown. Even with Jonathan Gannon knowing the Eagles better than most others who come into the Linc, Philly should head into the new year on a good note."
Brooke Cersosimo's Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
2023-24 Season Record: 174-137-8 (56%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “The Philadelphia Eagles are finally starting to lean more on their running game again, and that has resulted in back-to-back productive weeks for RB D'Andre Swift.
With a matchup against the porous Arizona Cardinals run defense set for Week 17, I'm betting on D'Andre Swift's odds to continue churning yards out on the ground and top his rushing total, which has ticked up as high as 68.5 at some books but is still available at 63.5 at FanDuel.
After averaging nearly 17 carries (and 76.4 yards) per game from Weeks 2-9, while logging 15+ carries in six of those games, Swift's usage plummeted in the back half of the season; he averaged fewer than 11 carries over the next four games and failed to register 15 rushes in any of those games.
However, the last two weeks have seen Nick Sirianni give Swift 18 and 20 carries — his second and third-highest totals of the season — which he's turned into 166 yards.
Now, here comes a Cardinals team that allows the second-most rushing yards per game (123.4) to RBs this season and has yielded more than 110 rushing yards in 13/17 games.
Arizona just allowed Khalil Herbert to go for 112 yards last week, marking the fourth time in the last five weeks an opposing lead back has reached that mark.
Philadelphia's offense has always been at its best when it runs the balls consistently, and with the likelihood that the Eagles are nursing a lead (currently sitting as double-digit favorites), we could see a lot of Swift in the second half to wear down the defense... and the clock.
Some projection models forecast as much as 74 yards for Swift, with the industry consensus around 68 yards, giving a little buffer on this number.
The only concern is this game gets too out-of-hand, and the starters all get extended rest, but considering Philadelphia's defense has struggled and the team overall has lost three of four and failed to cover the spread in five straight, I think this stays close enough that Swift and the ground game will be used to the bitter end.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: D'Andre Swift Over 63.5 rush yards
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Chicago Bears (75%)
• Spread: Chicago Bears -2.5 (67%)
• Total Points: Over 38 (50%)
Ali Bhanpuri, NFL Network - “By all accounts, Montez Sweat seems like a solid, stand-up dude. But since his arrival in Chicago at the trade deadline, the Bears have become downright selfish: The offense leads the NFL in time of possession, while the defense ranks near the top in takeaways and opponents' time of possession per drive. In other words, Sweat and Friends take the ball and keep it. Bad news for the edge rusher's former teammate, Taylor Heinicke, who has the sixth-highest turnover-per-play percentage (2.9%) among QBs since entering the league in 2017. To be fair, the backup-turned-starter (times two) did provide the proverbial "spark" in his return to the first-team offense last week, leading the unit to its cleanest, most effective performance of the season. But that was in Atlanta, against a banged-up Colts squad. The Falcons have fared far worse away from home (2-5). So it seems unwise to count on Heinicke having a repeat showing on Sunday at Soldier Field, where opposing teams have gone winless (0-4) with a -6 turnover margin since late October."
Ali Bhanpuri's Pick: Chicago Bears
2023-24 Season Record: 167-142-9 (54%)
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars (91%)
• Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -4 (50%)
• Total Points: Under 36.5 (51%)
Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk - “The Jaguars desperately need to get back on track, after losing four games in a row."
Mike Florio's Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
2023-24 Season Record: 126-93-6 (58%)
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Indianapolis Colts (57%)
• Spread: Las Vegas Raiders +4 (65%)
• Total Points: Under 42.5 (57%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “The Raiders have a big blowout win and a big statement win both in the division vs. the Chargers and Chiefs. That's great for Antonio Pierce's chances to be the full-time head coach and maybe becoming their version of Dan Campbell. The Colts can stop the run and run the ball and make it rough on Aidan O'Connell in his non-college return to Indiana."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: Indianapolis Colts
2023-24 Season Record: 166-139-3 (54%)
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Los Angeles Rams (97%)
• Spread: Los Angeles Rams -6 (82%)
• Total Points: Over 43.5 (51%)
Ali Bhanpuri, NFL Network - “Los Angeles is 5-1 since its Week 10 bye (with the team's only blemish being an overtime road loss to the league-leading Ravens), transforming a once-lost season into a potential playoff berth. Over that six-game span, the offense ranks third in points per game (29.8) and second in yards per game (406), behind a 35-year-old quarterback playing the position with as much confidence, anticipation and precision as any passer in the NFL. Now, it's worth noting Matthew Stafford does have a knack for throwing pick-sixes, which could be problematic against a Wink Martindale defense that leads the league in takeaways since the season's midpoint. But I don't see the Giants' struggling pass rush (32nd in QB pressure %, 31st in sack % since Week 9, per NGS) causing enough disruption to consistently force Stafford off his spot -- especially not against a Rams O-line that's allowed just seven total sacks over the last six games. L.A. rolls in this one, taking another step toward a playoff return."
Ali Bhanpuri's Pick: Los Angeles Rams
2023-24 Season Record: 167-142-9 (54%)
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Baltimore Ravens (79%)
• Spread: Baltimore Ravens -3 (71%)
• Total Points: Over 46.5 (68%)
John Breech, CBS Sports - “As someone who once lived in a warm-weather state for six years (California), let me just say that there is nothing worse than being forced to visit a cold-weather city in late December. There's a reason you don't see people taking late December vacations to Baltimore. The forecast for this week's game is calling for a high of 45 degrees, which might be a problem for the Dolphins. If you've ever been to Miami, you may have noticed that people start wearing jackets there when the temperature drops below 70 degrees. In Baltimore, no one wears a jacket until they're exhibiting at least three symptoms of frost bite. Although I've tried to convince myself that the Dolphins can play in cold weather, the numbers say otherwise: Since the start of the 2017 season, the Dolphins are 1-14 when the kickoff temperature is at 45 degrees or below and that includes an 0-4 record with Mike McDaniel as their coach. As things stand now, the temperature for this game is expected to be right around 45 degrees at kickoff. We'll find out if Mother Nature is a Dolphins fan this week, because if she is, she'll make sure that it's 46 or higher when this game starts. There's a lot riding on this game with the winner taking one giant step closer to earning the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC playoffs and the bye that comes with it (The Ravens will actually clinch the top seed if they win). This game is also giving us two amazing matchups: First, we have the NFL's best passing offense in the Dolphins going up against a Ravens defense that only surrenders 185.7 yards per game through the air. The Dolphins played reasonably well against the Cowboys defense, but the Ravens are an even stiffer test. Baltimore leads the NFL in SACKS this year, which means Tua Tagovailoa is probably going to be facing a lot of pressure. Let's check out how Tua plays when he's under pressure: That's not ideal. The other matchup we're getting in this game is that NFL's leading rushing offense in Baltimore going up against a Dolphins defense that only surrenders 90.8 yards per game on the ground. Although the Dolphins have been great at stopping the run, they've only faced two teams that currently rank in the NFL's top-10 in rushing yards (Bills and Eagles) and they lost both of those by an average of 21 points per game. When the weather gets cold, I generally pick substance over style, so I feel like that means I have to take the Ravens here. Also, the Dolphins likely won't have Jaylen Waddle (ankle), which definitely hurts when you're going up against one of the NFL's best defenses."
John Breech's Pick: Baltimore Ravens
2023-24 Season Record: 62-42-0 (60%)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Buffalo Bills (98%)
• Spread: New England Patriots +14 (62%)
• Total Points: Over 40 (52%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “The Patriots are playing consecutive road games after beating the Broncos Sunday night. The Bills rallied to win last week against a bad Chargers team, so that will get them back focused again. Their playoff push continues as they handle the Patriots with a strong outing and get ready for Miami next week."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Buffalo Bills
2023-24 Season Record: 120-101-4 (54%)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (89%)
• Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (83%)
• Total Points: Over 42.5 (55%)
Ali Bhanpuri, NFL Network - “The Bucs enter this NFC South clash on a four-game win streak, with a quarterback playing lights out, a defense finding its groove and a division title at stake. They're also at home, where they haven't lost since late October. So, a lot of angles work in Tampa's favor. But to me, the Bucs' biggest X-factor in this matchup is their depth at the second level. Todd Bowles' defense is one of the few in the league with the linebackers capable of mitigating Alvin Kamara's versatility as both a runner and receiver. In fact, when these two teams met in Week 4 -- a 26-9 Bucs win -- Kamara had a whopping 13 receptions for a measly 33 yards. Tampa's ability to contain Kamara while still taking away chunk plays contributed to Derek Carr's abysmal 3.4 yards per attempt -- the second-worst mark of his 10-year career. New Orleans' quick-strike capability via Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed is concerning, but not enough for me to pick against these surging Bucs."
Ali Bhanpuri's Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023-24 Season Record: 167-142-9 (54%)
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: San Francisco 49ers (99%)
• Spread: San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (76%)
• Total Points: Under 49.5 (51%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “The 49ers will go from facing a terrific pressure and coverage defense from Baltimore at home to facing the complete opposite of all that in Washington. Losing former Commanders left tackle Trent Williams (groin) to a new injury is a big hit to the blocking and protection, but whether it's a healthy Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold, this will be a big get-well game offensively and defensively for San Francisco."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: San Francisco 49ers
2023-24 Season Record: 166-139-3 (54%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “The Washington Commanders defense is absolutely terrible. San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is absolutely amazing.
See where I'm going with this?
Betting the Over on Christian McCaffrey odds is never really a bad idea, but I love the Over on his rushing yardage total of 86.5 when he's facing a defense that has:
Given up at least 91 yards on the ground in 14/15 games this season.
Allowed 247 rush yards to the opposing lead back over the last two weeks.
Gave up 95 rush yards last week to Breece Hall and the Jets' rushing attack that is dead last in rush EPA/play and 30th in rush success rate.
Now, the Commanders face a Niners squad that is No. 2 in rush EPA/play, No. 3 in rush success rate, with McCaffrey getting roughly 75% of all carries this season — and 84% of the rushes during the last seven games, where he's averaged 106.1 yards per game, has 93+ yards six times, and has registered 100+ in four of his last five outings.
There are some questions on whether QB Brock Purdy will play after suffering a shoulder injury last week, or if it will be veteran backup Sam Darnold, but I think either scenario plays right into the hands of CMC racking up yards — either San Fran leans on its stud to help protect its banged-up QB1 or it leans on CMC to take the load off a backup.
San Francisco is trying to wipe the taste of an ugly MNF performance last week out of its mouth, so it should be looking to take some frustrations out on the hapless Commanders, who are nearly two-touchdown underdogs.
There is also concern here that the starters are on the bench come the latter stages of the game, but with San Fran needing this win to stay in control of the No. 1 spot in the NFC, I think the Niners will want to put this game away as quickly as possible, meaning McCaffrey will do more than enough damage right from the jump.
Projection models range as high as 105 yards for CMC on Sunday, and as long as he even plays three quarters, I'm confident he puts up another monster game.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 86.5 rush yards
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans • 12/31 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Houston Texans (87%)
• Spread: Houston Texans -4 (56%)
• Total Points: Under 44 (52%)
Tom Blair, NFL Network - “These teams played each other close in Week 15, but that was without C.J. Stroud on the field -- and before the Titans were officially eliminated from the playoff hunt. Now, Stroud is practicing again, meaning he could be back in time to make a final push for the postseason. Tennessee has the goods to play spoiler. However, even if Stroud sits out again, I'll put my faith in DeMeco Ryans, who should be plenty motivated to end his first season as head coach on a strong note."
Tom Blair's Pick: Houston Texans
2023-24 Season Record: 167-134-8 (55%)
Prop Picks
Jared Hochman, Covers - “George Constanza would be proud of me, because I'm double-dipping here on some Houston Texans wide receivers, because C.J. Stroud is back under center — and the Tennessee Titans secondary is bad.
Let's start with Nico Collins' odds, as his receiving yardage total is just 59.5. He's coming off a rough three-week stretch where he (and Stroud) got injured against the Jets, then he sat out Week 15 due to a calf injury, followed by a return last week where he was less than 100% and managed just four catches for 18 yards against Cleveland's No. 1-ranked defense with Case Keenum at QB.
In his last three full games where Stroud played, he averaged 7.7 catches and 120 yards per game, while he's averaged 90.9 ypg on the season with Stroud at QB.
Next, we'll look at Noah Brown's odds: The Texans' WR2 has a total of 43.5 yards for Sunday and has been up-and-down this season due to injuries, but dropped 325 yards in a two-game span... then missed two games due to injury, had two games (including the aforementioned Jets debacle) where he was just doing cardio, before logging 82 yards against these same Titans two weeks ago and leading all Houston WR with 36 yards against Cleveland.
So in his last six games, he's averaged almost 136 ypg against bad secondaries, struggled against elite secondaries, and then had one dud when he was coming back from injury.
So let me remind you: The Titans are a bad secondary.
Tennessee allows the fifth-most yards to wide receivers in the league, and with top CB Kristian Fulton on the IR and No. 2 CB Sean Murphy-Bunting questionable, both Collins and Brown could see a lot of Eric Garror and Tre Avery — the latter of which was targeted 13 times last week, allowing 10 catches for 106 yards (and two penalties) to the Seattle Seahawks.
The Titans have allowed 10 pass catchers to top 56 yards over the last four weeks, and I'd expect Stroud to be ready to get back to his pass-happy ways after missing the last 2.5 games.
Industry consensus projections put Collins at around 73 yards, with some models as high as 82.5, while Brown is projected as high as 56 yards with an average of 49.5
Both lend plenty of confidence that these guys can cruise past their totals on Sunday, so let's expect Stroud & Co. to do plenty of the "Squabble."”
Jared Hochman’s Picks: Noah Brown Over 43.5 receiving yards & Nico Collins Over 59.5 receiving yards
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks • 12/31 @ 4:05pm
• Winner: Seattle Seahawks (83%)
• Spread: Seattle Seahawks -4 (57%)
• Total Points: Under 41 (58%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “This is a playoff game of sorts for these two. The Seahawks are coming off a nice comeback victory over the Titans, while the Steelers handled the Bengals in Mason Rudolph's first start. This will be a lot tougher on the road for Rudolph, but the Steelers will hang around. In the end, I think Geno Smith will make enough plays to win it late for Seattle like he did last week's game."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Seattle Seahawks
2023-24 Season Record: 120-101-4 (54%)
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs • 12/31 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (94%)
• Spread: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 (52%)
• Total Points: Under 44 (61%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “Let's try this again after the Chiefs' letdown despite playing dominant pass defense at home against the Raiders on Monday. They're back at home facing a much weaker defense that struggles most against covering the tight end and stopping the run, and now has suddenly become more vulnerable to big pass plays downfield. Jake Browning was curbed in Pittsburgh and Kansas City offers a much tougher challenge on the road. Meanwhile, Mahomes and Travis Kelce get that long-awaited get-well game together as a key playoff tuneup."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
2023-24 Season Record: 166-139-3 (54%)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos • 12/31 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Denver Broncos (72%)
• Spread: Denver Broncos -3.5 (50%)
• Total Points: Under 36.5 (58%)
Gennaro Filice, NFL Network - “When last these two teams met, Russell Wilson led the Broncos to their sixth win in seven games, putting a major damper on Brandon Staley's 41st birthday. Three game weeks and four combined losses later, Staley's unemployed and Wilson's unwanted, as both organizations clearly have turned the page to next season. But what can we expect in the penultimate game of this season? Well, in the wake of Denver's decision to put Russ on the shelf -- thus preserving financial flexibility with the quarterback's nine-figure contract -- Jarrett Stidham gets the starting reins. Remember, Sean Payton aggressively pursued Stidham in free agency this past March, leading many to surmise back then that Wilson could be on borrowed time with the new coach. Whether or not Stidham is the answer at quarterback, you better believe Payton will do everything he can to avoid awkward questions about Wilson. And nothing thwarts second-guessing better than winning."
Gennaro Filice's Pick: Denver Broncos
2023-24 Season Record: 180-131-8 (58%)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings • 12/31 @ 8:20pm
• Winner: Green Bay Packers (61%)
• Spread: Green Bay Packers +1 (60%)
• Total Points: Under 43.5 (57%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “Jordan Love has had the expected ups and downs of his first full-time starting season. But the Packers do have a keeper at QB, given he's worked through a lot of injuries and reshuffling personnel around him at key positions. He is feeling better with a variety of young weapons with each week and now has help from his running backs. The Vikings' passing game has become aggressive with new fill-in starter Nick Mullens but will be missing key target T.J. Hockenson. Green Bay keeps its slim wild-card playoff hopes alive by dashing that of its rival in Minnesota."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: Green Bay Packers
2023-24 Season Record: 166-139-3 (54%)
We hope you enjoy this week’s games and see you again next Sunday!
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Until next time,
Team TS