NFL Week 16 Pulse: Tips and Picks Across the Sports Media Industry
Delivering quick insights, curated from experts and insiders from outlets such as CBS, ESPN, The Athletic, USA Today, SB Nation, and more.
Welcome to this week’s NFL Pulse, your ultimate source for expert NFL picks, predictions, and in-depth analysis from professionals across the media industry. Whether you're a fan or a seasoned bettor, we’re here to offer concise insights and overviews for each game, ensuring you're well-informed throughout this thrilling NFL season.
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SU = Straight Up Winner
ATS = Against the [Points] Spread
Total = Over or Under Total Points
% = Industry Consensus
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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers • 12/23 @ 4:30pm
• Winner: Cincinnati Bengals (77%)
• Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (72%)
• Total Points: Under 38 (62%)
Ali Bhanpuri, NFL Network - “Cincinnati enters Saturday's high-stakes bout at Pittsburgh looking to punish its fourth consecutive playoff contender and tighten its grasp on an AFC wild-card spot. The Jake Browning-led offense has averaged 32 points per during its three-game run -- just nine points shy of what the Steelers have totaled during their current three-game slide (41). Letdowns against New England and Arizona in recent weeks have not only jeopardized Pittsburgh's playoff chances, but also Mike Tomlin's streak of consecutive seasons without a losing record -- which, at 16, is the longest in league history by any coach to start a career. Tomlin will have to coach the hell out of his squad Saturday to save the Steelers' season and get back on the path to 17 straight. And while I'd be foolish to count him out, I'm more confident right now in the Bengals' offense continuing to roll than I am Pittsburgh's ability to keep pace, even with Ja'Marr Chase ruled out. Browning might not care much for revenge narratives, but what a story it would be if he were to effectively end a rival's season -- the same one that handed him an L in his first career start -- amid thousands of Terrible Towels, while simultaneously bolstering the Bengals' playoff chances."
Ali Bhanpuri's Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
2023-24 Season Record: 216-203-10 (52%)
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers • 12/23 @ 8:00pm
• Winner: Buffalo Bills (99%)
• Spread: Buffalo Bills -11.5 (70%)
• Total Points: Over 42.5 (70%)
Ali Bhanpuri, NFL Network - “Imagine you've spent the last 30-some years in the coaching ranks -- including the last 14 in the NFL -- working toward an opportunity to be the top dog. And when you finally get a chance to sit in the big chair, your first test is against a desperate and dangerous Buffalo squad that just downed two of the league's best teams. Oh, and you'll be without your franchise QB and probably your No. 1 WR and second-best defensive player. Major yikes. I feel for Giff Smith, whose head-coaching debut is likely to end up being memorable for the wrong reasons. The Bills need this win to keep pace in both the wild-card and AFC East races. They leave no doubt in this one."
Ali Bhanpuri's Pick: Buffalo Bills
2023-24 Season Record: 216-203-10 (52%)
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans • 12/24 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Cleveland Browns (75%)
• Spread: Cleveland Browns -2.5 (77%)
• Total Points: Under 40 (57%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “This is a big game for both teams. The Browns have played well with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but he lost his last road start. The Texans should have C.J. Stroud back for this one, but that's still up in the air. Even if he is back, I think the Browns win it with a few deep balls and solid defense"
Pete Prisco's Pick: Cleveland Browns
2023-24 Season Record: 171-134-4 (56%)
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans • 12/24 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Seattle Seahawks (81%)
• Spread: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (73%)
• Total Points: Under 42 (61%)
Brooke Cersosimo, NFL Network - “Drew Lock or Geno Smith? Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis? It looks like Smith could be back for the Seahawks, and as of this writing, Tannehill appears poised to play in place of the injured Titans rookie. No matter who is starting under center, I'm keeping a close eye on the rushing attacks. Tennessee is averaging its fewest ground yards per game (104) since 2015 -- the year before Derrick Henry was drafted -- while Seattle's 6-0 this season when it hits 100 yards rushing. Both defenses have struggled to stop the run, so "King Henry" and Kenneth Walker III have something playing in their favor. My forecast: Walker enjoys his best performance of the year to help keep Seattle's postseason aspirations alive."
Brooke Cersosimo's Pick: Seattle Seahawks
2023-24 Season Record: 229-190-8 (55%)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings • 12/24 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Detroit Lions (89%)
• Spread: Detroit Lions -3 (74%)
• Total Points: Over 47 (64%)
Tom Blair, NFL Network - “One wrinkle that gives me pause here: Jared Goff's performance in his two previous games against Brian Flores-led defenses (54.5% completion rate, 292 yards per game, one TD, three picks, two fumbles lost). Another: The Lions' disappearing act in their last divisional road date, a 15-point loss at Chicago in Week 14. While that's not quite enough in the pause department to get me to pick Minnesota in this one, I think Detroit will be tested more than it was in Week 15's laugher against Denver."
Tom Blair's Pick: Detroit Lions
2023-24 Season Record: 212-199-9 (52%)
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers • 12/24 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Green Bay Packers (96%)
• Spread: Green Bay Packers -4.5 (83%)
• Total Points: Over 37.5 (54%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “Jordan Love gives some inspiration to Carolina that despite being in a much smaller frame, Bryce Young will find his way next season to become one of the league's better passers. For now, despite inconsistent young weapons and a fickle running game, Love has exceeded some expectations. Green Bay's defense has been the much bigger culprit of late. A heavy Packers crowd in Charlotte boosts the visitors to ending a shocking tow-game losing streak."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: Green Bay Packers
2023-24 Season Record: 217-184-4 (54%)
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons • 12/24 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Indianapolis Colts (83%)
• Spread: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (81%)
• Total Points: Under 45 (59%)
Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk - “The Colts are feeling more and more confident. The Falcons are down to their last chance, or close to it."
Mike Florio's Pick: Indianapolis Colts
2023-24 Season Record: 169-132-8 (56%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “Atlanta Falcons receiver KhaDarel Hodge has 13 catches on 19 targets for 227 yards...
...for the entire season.
All 14 games.
But here's the thing: Nine of those targets, six of those catches, and 135 of those yards came in six quarters when Taylor Heinicke took over from Desmond Ridder as the Falcons' quarterback.
Now, Heinicke is again back under center for Atlanta, so I'm looking at betting KhaDarel Hodge odds. His receptions total is 0.5, but juiced in the -240 range, so instead I'm going to bet his receiving yards prop at a robust line of 10.5 yards.
Listen, I know this ain't pretty, but stick with me, OK?
In the games in which he's caught a pass (which is eight of his last 12), he's registered at least 10 yards every time and has topped the 10.5-yard mark seven times.
This isn't as much a play on the matchup — although the Indianapolis Colts' secondary isn't particularly great — but more betting on a guy to get one catch with a quarterback that seemingly has a good connection with him.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: KhaDarel Hodge Over 10.5 receiving yards
Washington Commanders at New York Jets • 12/24 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: New York Jets (50%)
• Spread: Washington Commanders +3 (57%)
• Total Points: Under 37 (69%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “The Jets got a spark from Zach Wilson's return in Week 14, only to see him get hurt again in Week 15 and everything crumble again offensively. They were completely grounded with zero points despite having Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. It's likely Trevor Siemian over Aaron Rodgers starting with no more playoffs on the line, but they face such an awful defense that Hall, Wilson and the key weapons should rebound big-time. The Commanders are dealing with their own QB mess and this pass defense doesn't inspire Sam Howell getting back on track."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: New York Jets
2023-24 Season Record: 217-184-4 (54%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “Things have been ugly for the New York Jets, topping 13 points just once in its last eight games, and that has especially applied to the run game, which has mustered just 60.8 yards per game during that span.
If you've backed the Over on Breece Hall's odds for his rushing total during that span, you'd be a miserable 0-8, but there's reason to believe that Week 16 is when this losing streak ends:
The Washington Commanders defense is a bigger embarrassment than the Jets offense.
Yes, we get the highly resistible object against a very moveable force on Sunday, but I'm fading the Commanders more and taking Hall to top 45.5 rush yards.
Washington's run defense has given up at least 91 yards on the ground in 13 of 14 games this season, while allowing the opposing lead back to average 75.6 rushing yards per game and record 51+ yards 13 times.
It's gotten even worse as of late, as last week's effort vs. the Rams — 196 total rushing yards allowed and 152 specifically to Kyren Williams — marked the sixth straight game where an opposing lead back has topped 63 rushing yards, averaging 89.5 yards during that span and surrendering 123 rush yards per game overall in this stretch.
Washington's defense overall gives up the highest yards per play (6.7) and has the lowest rate of 3-and-outs forced (24.1%), per The Athletic. Combine that with a Washington offense that's cratered over the last four weeks facing a still-stout Jets defense, and New York should be able to run more plays and give Hall more chances to run the ball, even with third-stringer Trevor Siemian likely starting at QB.
Game script should also help out Hall on Sunday, as the Jets likely aren't going to be trailing by multiple touchdowns (as they have in three of their last five games) so a balanced (or run-heavy) running attack should be in play for all four quarters.
Industry projections average around 65 yards for Hall on Sunday, with some models forecasting as high as 74 yards — a full 20 yards more than his current total. It's been a slog for Gang Green's star RB, but this is arguably the worst run defense he's faced in months; he should be able to finish with a competent (not even necessarily good) day on the ground.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: Breece Hall Over 45.5 rushing yards
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers • 12/24 @ 4:05pm
• Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars (53%)
• Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 (50%)
• Total Points: Over 41.5 (64%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “Trevor Lawrence is in the concussion protocol, which means it could be C.J. Beathard starting at quarterback. But this game will come down to whether Baker Mayfield can have success against the Jacksonville defense. That unit played well last week against the Ravens, and I think they can slow Mayfield enough here. Jaguars take it."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
2023-24 Season Record: 171-134-4 (56%)
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears • 12/24 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Chicago Bears (81%)
• Spread: Chicago Bears -4 (52%)
• Total Points: Under 43 (53%)
Gennaro Filice, NFL Network - “The Justin Fields discourse sucks up all the energy around the Bears these days, and understandably so: Having entered this week with two of the top six picks in what figures to be a quarterback-rich draft, Chicago is rapidly approaching a fork in the road at the game's most important position. But instead of joining the chorus of voices discussing whether or not the Bears should stick with Fields, let's spotlight a rising star Chicago already committed to: Montez Sweat. The defensive end -- who came to the Windy City at the trade deadline and signed a $98 million extension shortly thereafter -- currently holds the rare distinction of simultaneously leading two teams in sacks, having piled up 6.5 in eight games with the Commanders and six more in his first six outings as a Bear. A beast against the run, too, Sweat's addition has completely transformed Matt Eberflus' defense. Prior to Sweat's arrival, Chicago was 23rd in total defense and 28th in scoring D. Since the trade, Chicago ranks fifth and seventh, respectively, in those categories. Good luck, Kyler."
Gennaro Filice's Pick: Chicago Bears
2023-24 Season Record: 227-191-9 (54%)
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins • 12/24 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Miami Dolphins (57%)
• Spread: Miami Dolphins -1 (57%)
• Total Points: Over 50 (72%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “This is an enormous game between two really good teams. The Cowboys are playing a second straight road game, which is a challenge after getting beat by the Bills last week. Dallas doesn't play well on the road, while Miami plays well at home. Even so, I think the Cowboys will find a way to hang around in this one."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Miami Dolphins
2023-24 Season Record: 171-134-4 (56%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “Sunday's matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins is lining up to be one of the most offensive contests of Week 16, with a total of 51.5 easily the highest of the week, and I'm getting in the holiday spirit with this pick, as I expect Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to be in the spirit of giving and go Over his completions total of 23.5.
The Cowboys have some incredible home/road splits — and their quarterback is no different — but looking at the rest of Dak Prescott's odds, I'm more confident in his completions as it's a number he's topped in three of his last six road games (compared to his passing yards going 1/6 in that span) and the Dolphins pose a good matchup this week for a passing offense to at least be competent.
Miami's secondary is decimated by injuries, as 3/4 of its starters (CB Xavien Howard, S Jevon Hollard, S DeShon Elliott) are all questionable to play, while DE Emmanuel Ogbah is also questionable and two other pass rushers (Jerome Baker and Jaelan Phillips) are out for the season.
Facing a gutted secondary that already was 23rd in the NFL in completion rate allowed, with a weakened pass rush, should give Prescott plenty of time to let the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson get open — not to mention Miami's run defense is one of the better units in the league, sitting fourth in yards per attempt and yards per game, while allowing an opposing team to top 100 rush yards just once in its last eight games.
Projection models land right around 25 completions for Prescott on Sunday, and while most books are offering this line at 24.5, FanDuel is offering 23.5 (with a little juice), but it's worth paying considering the shootout potential and deficiencies in the Dolphins' pass defense.
I would still play the 24.5 as well, especially if you can find it at even (or plus) money.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: Dak Prescott Over 23.5 completions
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos • 12/24 @ 8:15pm
• Winner: Denver Broncos (97%)
• Spread: Denver Broncos -7 (61%)
• Total Points: Under 34.5 (57%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “The Patriots got their big win over the Steelers out of the way for who seems like a lame-duck Bill Belichick. Along with Pittsburgh and last week's opponent, Kansas City, Belichick's team has had high-profile battles with Denver in the past (see Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning is big spots). New England is hanging in there defensively and will no doubt trying to join every other team trying to attack the Broncos with the running game and tight end. But the Broncos also can play nasty defense at home vs. a lesser passing game."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: Denver Broncos
2023-24 Season Record: 217-184-4 (54%)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs • 12/25 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (96%)
• Spread: Las Vegas Raiders +10 (51%)
• Total Points: Over 41 (73%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “The Chiefs got back on track last week against the Patriots and now can push to get the top seed. They beat the Raiders earlier this year on the road, but the Raiders are a better defense now. The Chiefs win it, but it's close."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
2023-24 Season Record: 171-134-4 (56%)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles • 12/25 @ 4:30pm
• Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (99%)
• Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -13.5 (54%)
• Total Points: Over 43 (63%)
Tom Blair, NFL Network - “Tommy DeVito could rediscover his mojo against the NFL's 28th-ranked passing defense, and the Giants (tied for ninth in the league with 22 takeaways) could coax a few key turnovers out of the Eagles (whose 21 giveaways are tied for 10th-most). New York would pretty much still need everything to go perfectly to pull off a win here. Philly, meanwhile, has the talent advantage to ensure plenty of room for error, meaning the three-game losing streak should end, even if some of the sloppiness of recent weeks continues."
Tom Blair's Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
2023-24 Season Record: 212-199-9 (52%)
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers • 12/25 @ 8:15pm
• Winner: San Francisco 49ers (77%)
• Spread: Baltimore Ravens +5 (62%)
• Total Points: Over 47 (61%)
Brooke Cersosimo, NFL Network - “Man, Santa delivered an absolute gem for Christmas this year! It's the crown jewel of Week 16 and my midseason Super Bowl matchup. This game features three MVP candidates (Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey) and a pair of top-five offenses -- which have scored at will for much of the season. But it's the defenses that could most influence this outcome, as Baltimore leads the NFL in scoring D (allowing just 16.1 points per game) and sacks (50), and San Francisco is second in scoring D (16.7 ppg) and tops in takeaways (25). The major difference I see in these teams? The offensive weapons outside of the quarterback, especially with Baltimore losing Keaton Mitchell for the season. Advantage: Niners."
Brooke Cersosimo's Pick: San Francisco 49ers
2023-24 Season Record: 229-190-8 (55%)
We hope you enjoy this week’s games and see you again next Sunday!
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Until next time,
Team TS