NFL Week 15 Pulse: Tips and Picks Across the Sports Media Industry
Delivering quick insights, curated from experts and insiders from outlets such as CBS, ESPN, The Athletic, USA Today, SB Nation, and more.
Welcome to this week’s NFL Pulse, your ultimate source for expert NFL picks, predictions, and in-depth analysis from professionals across the media industry. Whether you're a fan or a seasoned bettor, we’re here to offer concise insights and overviews for each game, ensuring you're well-informed throughout this thrilling NFL season.
Betting Terminology (learn more here):
SU = Straight Up Winner
ATS = Against the [Points] Spread
Total = Over or Under Total Points
% = Industry Consensus
If you want to check out the latest odds, click the link below!
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals • 12/16 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Cincinnati Bengals (83%)
• Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -3 (66%)
• Total Points: Under 40.5 (64%)
Brooke Cersosimo, NFL Network - “Minnesota is handing the keys to yet another quarterback (Nick Mullens) this season. Kevin O'Connell had to change something after last week's dud. Mullens, whose last start came in Week 15 of 2021, apparently will have Justin Jefferson back on the field, but will that be enough? It doesn't feel all that promising, considering Jake Browning and the Bengals have scored 34 points in back-to-back wins. Shoot, even if Brian Flores' defense continues its stingy streak -- allowing just 15 points per game since Week 6 (tops in the NFL) -- can Minnesota's offense even score enough to exceed that low bar?"
Brooke Cersosimo's Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
2023-24 Season Record: 265-213-9 (55%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “Let's pour one out for the Passtronaut, Joshua Dobbs, whose fairytale run came crashing down last week as he went 10/23 for 63 yards — and sent Justin Jefferson to the hospital — and got benched in the fourth quarter of the Minnesota Vikings scintillating 3-0 win.
Vikings Head Coach Kevin O'Connell wasted no time announcing that Dobbs would remain on the bench, instead opting to start journeyman Nick Mullens... and I'm going to back the Minnesota QB this Saturday and take the Over on Nick Mullens' odds to throw for more than 232.5 passing yards.
Mullens played two actual series in Sunday's win, completing 9-of-13 passes for 83 yards while leaning on tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Granted, he did this against a very bad Raiders defense — this will be just his second NFL start since 2020 — but he completed 21-of-25 passes in spot duty last year for the Vikings and this offense still has several weapons available in Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and possibly Jefferson, who is considered day-to-day with a chest injury.
They're also facing a Cincinnati Bengals secondary that has given up a league-worst 301 passing yards over their last eight games, with at least 240 pass yards in each of those contests.
We've seen plenty of backups and former castoffs have passing success in the past few weeks (Joe Flacco, Gardner Minshew, and current Cincy QB Jake Browning), so it's not outlandish to expect Mullens to step in and look competent in an otherwise solid passing offense.
He's a better natural than Dobbs (admittedly a low bar), and industry projections range as high as 267 yards for the veteran in Week 15, averaging around 256 yards.
Minnesota can't really run, so they'll have to pass — and I think Mullens will be up to the task.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: Nick Mullens over 232.5 passing yards
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts • 12/16 @ 4:30pm
• Winner: Indianapolis Colts (73%)
• Spread: Indianapolis Colts -1 (61%)
• Total Points: Under 42 (69%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “This is a big game in terms of the playoffs for both teams, especially with the Steelers coming off two straight losses and the Colts coming off a loss last week. The Steelers have issues on offense, but the defense has gone backwards lately as well. The Colts will win a tight one here to put an even bigger damper on the Steelers' playoff hopes."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Indianapolis Colts
2023-24 Season Record: 193-158-6 (55%)
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions • 12/16 @ 8:15pm
• Winner: Detroit Lions (68%)
• Spread: Denver Broncos +4.5 (65%)
• Total Points: Under 47.5 (56%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “The Lions are realizing their once strong hold on the NFC North is slipping away after losing to the Packers and Bears in recent weeks. The young defense is wiling against the pass but there's one matchup here to think Detroit will rebound, despite Denver being a hot AFC wild-card contender. The Broncos have the worst run defense in the NFL. The Lions can be elite in that offensive strength with the 1-2 punch of Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery. That will help them correct to their ideal game script with Aidan Hutchinson teeing offf on Russell Wilson."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: Detroit Lions
2023-24 Season Record: 234-210-4 (53%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “The Denver Broncos defense has been much improved in the back half of the season, but it's the secondary that's taken the greatest strides while the run defense can still be exploited — specifically in giving up explosive plays — so with the Detroit Lions as their next opponent, I'm looking at Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs' odds to target, specifically his longest rush prop, which is currently set at 13.5 yards.
Gibbs splits snaps with backfield mate David Montgomery, with the veteran Montgomery generally getting a few more carries, but the rookie is the far more explosive runner, with the better yards per carry and average yards after contact, more runs of 10+ yards (18 total), and a league-leading eight runs of 20+ yards.
He has a run of 21+ yards in six of his last seven games and at least one 14+ yard run in each of those contests, while Denver gave up 15 runs of 10+ yards over a four-game stretch (with 3+ runs in each game) before keeping the Chargers' toothless rush attack in check last week.
Detroit's rushing attack has been one of the NFL's best all season, sitting fifth with 137.5 yards per game and third with 4.7 yards per carry, but it's been even better as of late in averaging almost 160 yards per game on 5.3 ypc over the last six games.
Gibbs' rushing attempt prop currently is at 10.5 yards, putting him around his highest total over the last four games, but with Detroit QB Jared Goff in a bit of a rut — and the strength of Denver's D being the secondary and pass rush — I could see a heavier reliance on the running game and possibly even a couple extra carries for Gibbs.
Some books have already moved on this prop, sitting as short as -150, which makes me believe a move to 14.5 is likely in the days leading up to kickoff. You can still find this around -130 at some operators, however, so I'm jumping on it now before the price (or line) shifts unfavorably.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 13.5 yards
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers • 12/17 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Atlanta Falcons (90%)
• Spread: Atlanta Falcons -3 (83%)
• Total Points: Over 34 (58%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “The Falcons let one get away in the closing seconds against Tampa Bay, but this is a good way to get back on the winning side. The Panthers are awful on offense. They can't score. Atlanta can and it will in this one. The Falcons win it."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Atlanta Falcons
2023-24 Season Record: 193-158-6 (55%)
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns • 12/17 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Cleveland Browns (77%)
• Spread: Cleveland Browns -3 (62%)
• Total Points: Under 38.5 (53%)
Tom Blair, NFL Network - “If this were in Chicago, I might go with the Bears, who have been rolling lately, while the Browns can't stop losing important players to injury. Chicago's Montez Sweat-ified pass rush should also be a concern for Cleveland, which has been relying on fill-in tackles Geron Christian and James Hudson -- who, to their credit, did help keep Joe Flacco clean against Josh Allen and the Jaguars in Week 14. Perhaps my vision is clouded by a touch of Flacco Fever, but I see this one going down to the wire, with Joe and Co. squeaking it out at home."
Tom Blair's Pick: Cleveland Browns
2023-24 Season Record: 238-232-11 (51%)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans • 12/17 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Tennessee Titans (58%)
• Spread: Houston Texans +3 (53%)
• Total Points: Under 37 (52%)
Gennaro Filice, NFL Network - “From what we know at publishing, wunderkind quarterback C.J. Stroud remains in concussion protocol. That's obviously the most significant Texans ailment, but it's not the only one. Fellow rookie sensation Tank Dell suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago. Last week, in addition to Stroud, WR Nico Collins, DE Will Anderson Jr., LB Blake Cashman and CB Tavierre Thomas all left the game with health issues. Wednesday's injury report reads like a who's who of foundational pieces. So, with Houston smack dab in the middle of a particularly thorny stretch -- the schedule's only instance of back-to-back road games -- these young, upstart Texans are far from whole. Did I mention the Titans have been markedly better at home? Oh, and Tennessee freight train Derrick Henry has eclipsed 200 yards rushing in four of his past five games against Houston. And I'm thinking DeAndre Hopkins will be looking to show out against his old team. Just a lot of bad juju around the Texans here."
Gennaro Filice's Pick: Tennessee Titans
2023-24 Season Record: 256-223-11 (53%)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots • 12/17 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (97%)
• Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (69%)
• Total Points: Under 37 (51%)
Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk - “Can the Chiefs put Sunday’s disappointment vs. Buffalo behind them, or will one loss become two?"
Mike Florio's Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
2023-24 Season Record: 190-152-8 (56%)
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints • 12/17 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: New Orleans Saints (65%)
• Spread: New York Giants +6 (73%)
• Total Points: Under 39 (57%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “The Saints didn't play pretty offense last week with Derek Carr but still rolled to a big win on the Panthers. The Giants' defense has too many holes in coverage to think Carr can't heat up a little more with Alvin Kamara and the running game opening things up downfield. Tommy DeVito on a short week against a swarming defense with good coverage and capacity to contain the run doesn't sound good."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: New Orleans Saints
2023-24 Season Record: 234-210-4 (53%)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins • 12/17 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Miami Dolphins (95%)
• Spread: New York Jets +8.5 (52%)
• Total Points: Over 37.5 (70%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “The Dolphins are coming off a brutal loss to the Titans Monday night in which they blew a late 14-point lead. The Jets beat up the Texans last week as Zach Wilson played well. The Dolphins beat the Jets a month ago, but this will be a lot tougher than that game. The Jets will hang around, but Miami wins it."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Miami Dolphins
2023-24 Season Record: 193-158-6 (55%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers • 12/17 @ 1:00pm
• Winner: Green Bay Packers (83%)
• Spread: Green Bay Packers -3.5 (65%)
• Total Points: Over 42 (59%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “The Buccaneers are in first place in the NFC South but they can be inconsistent, especially defensively with all their injury issues. Baker Mayfield plays OK here and the Packers' defense will be slowed a bit with their own injuries on a short week. But Jordan Love comes through again with his all his skill position players with key passes all over the field, down to the final game-winning drive."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: Green Bay Packers
2023-24 Season Record: 234-210-4 (53%)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals • 12/17 @ 4:05pm
• Winner: San Francisco 49ers (98%)
• Spread: San Francisco 49ers -12 (71%)
• Total Points: Over 47.5 (64%)
Brooke Cersosimo, NFL Network - “The first team to clinch a playoff berth, San Francisco is sitting pretty with an MVP candidate at quarterback heading into the final stretch. Brock Purdy is leading the most consistently great offense in the NFL, as the 49ers have won nine games this season by 12 points or more. There's not much the Cardinals, even coming off an extra week of rest, can do to slow these Niners. Yes, Arizona upset the Steelers, who currently hold the AFC’s sixth seed, last time out, but San Francisco is a whole other animal."
Brooke Cersosimo's Pick: San Francisco 49ers
2023-24 Season Record: 265-213-9 (55%)
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams • 12/17 @ 4:05pm
• Winner: Los Angeles Rams (98%)
• Spread: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (83%)
• Total Points: Under 50.5 (58%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “The Commanders are coming off a bye, but they aren't playing for anything. The Rams are playing for their playoff lives. The Rams lost to the Ravens last week in overtime, but showed well. That will continue here as Matthew Stafford lights up the Washington defense."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Los Angeles Rams
2023-24 Season Record: 193-158-6 (55%)
Prop Pick
Jared Hochman, Covers - “One of my winners last week came courtesy of taking the Over on Matthew Stafford's passing yards against a formidable Baltimore Ravens defense... and I'm doubling down the Los Angeles Rams QB again in Week 15 and betting on Matthew Stafford's odds once again with a much easier matchup.
Despite facing the NFL's second-ranked passing defense, in miserable wet and windy weather on the road, Stafford went for 294 passing yards. That comes on the heels of a 279-yard effort in Week 13... against the league's No. 1-ranked passing defense.
Now, he returns home to SoFi Stadium, where he'll welcome the Washington Commanders to town, who allow the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league (277.9) and have surrendered 307 pass yards per game over their last four.
Stafford has historically struggled under pressure, due to his lack of mobility, but he should also be facing plenty of clean pockets as the Commanders' pass rush has fallen off a cliff after trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young, having one or zero sacks in four of their last five games and pressuring the QB on just 24.5% off all dropbacks during that span.
Some projection models range as high as 280 yards for Stafford on Sunday, and while most operators are posting the Rams QB at 268.5, but you can still find him at 263.5 at FanDuel — which is the number I'll jump on as I'll happily take the extra handful of yards.”
Jared Hochman’s Pick: Matthew Stafford over 263.5 passing yards
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills • 12/17 @ 4:25pm
• Winner: Dallas Cowboys (59%)
• Spread: Dallas Cowboys +2 (67%)
• Total Points: Over 50.5 (62%)
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News - “The Cowboys have a terrific playmaking defense in terms of getting key interceptions from Daron Bland and others. Micah Parsons can also provide some tough pressure on Josh Allen. Dak Prescott remains sizzling for Dallas and shouldn't worry about any matchups for key players such as CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson. This also will be a chance to get Tony Pollard going on the ground to grind out a higher-scoring win on the road."
Vinnie Iyer's Pick: Dallas Cowboys
2023-24 Season Record: 234-210-4 (53%)
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars • 12/17 @ 8:20pm
• Winner: Baltimore Ravens (87%)
• Spread: Baltimore Ravens -3 (79%)
• Total Points: Over 42.5 (76%)
John Breech, CBS Sports - “Over the past two weeks, the Jaguars have played two AFC North teams and they lost both games. In Week 13, they got to play at home against a Bengals team being led by Jake Browning and they managed to lose even though they were favored by 8.5-points. In Week 14, the Jaguars traveled to Cleveland and immediately lost to a Browns team that was being led by a guy who spent the first 11 weeks of the season watching football at his mom's house (Joe Flacco). Not only did they lose both those games, but they gave up more than 30 points in both games. If the Jaguars defense can't stop Jake Browning and Joe Flacco, I have no idea how they're going to stop Lamar Jackson. I've been trying wrap my head around how they might be able to stop Lamar and the only way I think it would even be possible is if the Jags were able to sign the Cowboys' entire defense by Sunday, which I don't think is realistic or even legal. Jackson is coming off one of his best games of the year that saw him throw for 316 yards and three touchdowns against a Rams defense that had not surrendered 300 passing yards to any team in the NFL this season. The good news for Jackson this week is that if you just show up for the game, you have a 50% chance of throwing for 300 yards against the Jaguars. Heading into Week 15, the Jags have surrendered 265.2 yards per game through the air this year, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have a 90.9 QB rating against the Jaguars defense this season. To put that in perspective, Joe Montana's career QB rating was 92.3, which means the Jags are so bad on defense that they make every QB they face look like Joe Montana. Now imagine if Joe Montana could run like Lamar Jackson and you'll understand what kind of trouble Jacksonville might be in on Sunday. I feel like the Ravens are going to score a lot of points and I can't imagine the Jaguars keeping up, especially with Trevor Lawrence still playing on a slightly hobbled ankle. This will mark the fourth time this season that Lawerence has faced a top-8 defense in the NFL and the Jags are 0-3 in the previous three games with losses to the Chiefs, Browns and 49ers. I don't think this game is going to go any better for them."
John Breech's Pick: Baltimore Ravens
2023-24 Season Record: 138-114-2 (55%)
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks • 12/18 @ 8:15pm
• Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (91%)
• Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (75%)
• Total Points: Over 47.5 (55%)
Tom Blair, NFL Network - “ Philly could use a breather after a pair of blowout losses to fellow NFC heavyweights San Francisco and Dallas. It's a bit bizarre to think of a game in Seattle -- which is still 4-2 at home -- as a chance to get right. But the Seahawks' 28th-ranked defense must look awfully appealing to Jalen Hurts and Co., who have faced top-seven units in four of their past five games. Philadelphia's struggling defense might feel the same way about Seattle's 20th-ranked offense, especially if Drew Lock starts at QB again."
Tom Blair's Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
2023-24 Season Record: 238-232-11 (51%)
We hope you enjoy this week’s games and see you again next Sunday!
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Until next time,
Team TS