NFL Divisional Round Pulse: Tips and Picks Across the Sports Media Industry
Delivering quick insights, curated from experts and insiders from outlets such as CBS, ESPN, The Athletic, USA Today, SB Nation, and more.
Welcome to this week’s NFL Pulse, your ultimate source for expert NFL picks, predictions, and in-depth analysis from professionals across the media industry. Whether you're a fan or a seasoned bettor, we’re here to offer concise insights and overviews for each game, ensuring you're well-informed throughout this thrilling NFL season.
Betting Terminology (learn more here):
SU = Straight Up Winner
ATS = Against the [Points] Spread
Total = Over or Under Total Points
% = Industry Consensus
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens • 1/20 @ 4:30pm
• Winner: Baltimore Ravens (91%)
• Spread: Houston Texans +9.5 (78%)
• Total Points: Over 43.5 (70%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “The Texans are coming off an impressive home victory over the Browns, while the Ravens are coming off a bye. The rest could be good for the Ravens, but the starters haven't played in three weeks. That might matter. This will be the first road playoff game for Texans rookie passer C.J. Stroud, which can be a challenge. It can be even tougher against the Ravens stout defense. They will throw a bunch of different looks at Stroud. How he handles those will be key. Lamar Jackson will be the league MVP, but he has to go out and show he can do it in a playoff game. The pressure is on. But I think in this offense he will respond. Look for a lot of points as both quarterbacks play well, but the Ravens will win a close one behind Jackson."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Baltimore Ravens win 30-29
2023-24 Season Record: 141-110-4 (56%)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers • 1/20 @ 8:15pm
• Winner: San Francisco 49ers (92%)
• Spread: Green Bay Packers +9.5 (56%)
• Total Points: Over 50.5 (55%)
John Breech, CBS Sports - “This will mark the third time in five seasons that these two teams have faced each other in the playoffs, although I'm guessing that Packers fans probably don't remember the first two games because they've spent the past four years talking to a therapist who has helped them repress those memories along with all memories of Aaron Rodgers' final season with the team (The 49ers won both games).
For the second straight week, the Packers are a huge underdog and for the second straight week they'll be facing a head coach that they're very familiar with. Last week, it was Mike McCarthy. This week, it's Kyle Shanahan, who is very close friends with Packers coach Matt LaFleur. The two spent a total of six seasons together at two different stops (Washington from 2010-13 and Atlanta in 2015 and 2016) and each guy is very familiar with the football philosophy of the other guy.
When the Packers beat the Cowboys last week, the biggest surprise to me wasn't how well the Green Bay offense played (I predicted a shootout), it was that their defense actually looked good. The Packers absolutely shut down the Cowboys offense, which is somewhat surprising when you consider that this same defense gave up 30 points to the CAROLINA PANTHERS in Week 16.
Although the Packers were able to shut down the Cowboys last week, I don't think we'll be seeing that again this week. For one, the Cowboys were basically a one-dimensional offense: They weren't very good at running the ball, which means if you were able to fluster Dak Prescott, you could slow them down. The 49ers definitely are NOT one-dimensional.
The 49ers had the third-most rushing yards in the NFL this season (mostly thanks to Christian McCaffrey) and the fourth-most passing yards. There is no easy way to stop this offense. If the Packers defense has one huge weakness, it's stopping the run It's a weakness the Cowboys weren't built to take advantage of, but the 49ers are. The Packers gave up the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL during the regular-season, and now, they have to go up against Christian McCaffrey, who led the league in rushing yards this year (McCaffrey finished with 1,459 yards in a season where no other running back even had 1,200).
This feels like a game where the 49ers are going to be able to move the ball at will, so the only question is whether the Packers are going to be able to keep up.
When you look at Green Bay's offense, LaFleur definitely stole some concepts from Shanahan and the 49ers usually seem to be well aware of that. When these two teams play, it sometimes feels like the 49ers are so familiar with Green Bay's offense that the 49ers defense knows what the Packers are going to do before the Packers know what they're going to do. That might explain why the Packers are 0-2 in the playoffs against the 49ers while scoring just 15 points per game in those two losses.
Jordan Love has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL over the past nine weeks with 21 touchdowns compared to just one interception since Week 11 and if he keeps playing like that, the Packers could certainly pull off an upset. I feel like Love can turn this game into a shootout, but I'm going to have to roll with the team that has won five straight playoff games at home."
John Breech's Pick: San Francisco 49ers win 34-27
2023-24 Season Record: 81-54-0 (60%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions • 1/21 @ 3:00pm
• Winner: Detroit Lions (87%)
• Spread: Detroit Lions -6 (53%)
• Total Points: Under 49.5 (51%)
Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports - “It's hard to buy any of the road underdogs winning straight-up. But odds are one of them will. In each of the past four postseasons and six of the past seven, at least one road team won in the divisional round.
The Buccaneers don't seem like a good candidate to be the road team to win. They were just 9-8 and won the NFC South, the weakest division in the NFL. But there will be at least one surprise this week.
The Lions have a secondary that played well in the second half against the Rams last week but hadn't played well in the few weeks before that. Baker Mayfield didn't look great late in the season, but he was dealing with injuries. He looked great in a win over the Eagles and is practicing in full this week. Tampa Bay's defense has played well at times. Maybe the 20-6 Lions win at Tampa Bay back in Week 6 was a preview, but that was a while ago, and that game was close before Jameson Williams hit a 45-yard touchdown late in the third quarter.
It wouldn't be a big surprise if the Lions, behind a raucous home crowd, get an easy win. But the Buccaneers have been feisty all season."
Frank Schwab's Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover the +6.5 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 61-49-5 (55%)
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills • 1/21 @ 6:30pm
• Winner: Buffalo Bills (58%)
• Spread: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (60%)
• Total Points: Under 45.5 (60%)
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer - “Mahomes has never played a road game in the playoffs (not counting neutral Super Bowl sites). This will be a first. Historically, betting against Mahomes as an underdog has been one of the worst wagers in football. The Chiefs have been underdogs 10 times in his career. They are 8-1-1 against the spread in those games. The only time he didn’t cover? A Week 6 loss to the Bills in 2022.
I’m really tempted to take the Chiefs, given that history. This feels like a coin-flip game, and the Bills are banged up. Why not grab the points? Buffalo has been stacking wins, but it has played a lot of tight games. It’s not like this is a completely different team from the one we saw earlier in the season.
Having said that, I’ve been saying for weeks that I don’t think the Chiefs have it. Mahomes doesn’t trust his receivers, and they’re vulnerable at offensive tackle. The Bills aren’t perfect, but they’re always competitive—12-6 and no team has beaten them by more than six points. Before the playoffs started, I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl, and I’m sticking with it. Let’s hope we get a classic here."
Sheil Kapadia's Pick: Buffalo Bills cover the -2.5 spread
2023-24 Season Record: 64-65-5 (50%)
We hope you enjoy this week’s games and see you again next Sunday!
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Until next time,
Team TS