NFL Championship Round Pulse: Tips and Picks Across the Sports Media Industry
Delivering quick insights, curated from experts and insiders from outlets such as CBS, ESPN, The Athletic, USA Today, SB Nation, and more.
Welcome to this week’s NFL Pulse, your ultimate source for expert NFL picks, predictions, and in-depth analysis from professionals across the media industry. Whether you're a fan or a seasoned bettor, we’re here to offer concise insights and overviews for each game, ensuring you're well-informed throughout this thrilling NFL season.
Betting Terminology (learn more here):
SU = Straight Up Winner
ATS = Against the [Points] Spread
Total = Over or Under Total Points
% = Industry Consensus
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens • 1/28 @ 3:00pm
• Winner: Baltimore Ravens (78%)
• Spread: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (60%)
• Total Points: Over 44.5 (61%)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports - “This is Lamar Jackson vs. Patrick Mahomes, the likely MVP this season for a second time against a guy who has won two already. The difference is Mahomes has Super Bowl rings, while Jackson is just trying to get there.
The Chiefs won a tough road game at Buffalo on Sunday, but the defense had some issues with the Buffalo run game. If that's a problem against Jackson and the Ravens, it will be a long day. Jackson will run it, but he will hit shots off it.
I think that Chiefs’ defense will play better this week, which will force Jackson to win it with his legs but mostly his right arm. He is more than capable.
As for Mahomes, he will be facing a defense that throws a lot of looks at a quarterback. But he's seen them all -- and had success against them all. I think he will be patient here as the Chiefs run it and he takes his shots off the run. The Chiefs did a nice job in protection last week, and that will carry over, thanks to the run game.
Look for both quarterbacks to play well, but I think the postseason experience for Mahomes will shine through. Look for the Chiefs to advance to another Super Bowl as Mahomes has some late-game magic to win it."
Pete Prisco's Pick: Kansas City Chiefs win 28-26
2023-24 Season Record: 142-113-4 (56%)
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers • 1/28 @ 6:30pm
• Winner: San Francisco 49ers (71%)
• Spread: Detroit Lions +7 (73%)
• Total Points: Over 51.5 (63%)
John Breech, CBS Sports - “For the first time since the 1991 season, the Lions are in the NFC Championship game. If you're wondering how long ago that was, let me put it this way: George H.W. Bush was still president (for eight more days), Vanilla Ice was the most famous white rapper on the planet and Chipotle didn't even exist yet. Try to imagine living in a world without Chipotle. You can't. It's impossible. Where would we even get our burritos? I don't even want to think about it.
Also, Vanilla Ice's reign as the most famous white rapper ended when Eminem came along and Eminem happens to be a Lions fan, so this was all clearly destined to happen.
In the 32 years since that initial NFC title game appearance, not much has gone right for the Lions. For years, they've been the laughingstock of the NFL, just like Detroit-style pizza has been the laughingstock of the culinary world, but let me tell you something, both are extremely underrated.
If the Lions are going to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, they're going to need to figure out how to stop the pass and they're going to need to get that figured out soon. The Lions surrendered an average of 247.9 passing yards per game during the regular season, which was the sixth-worst number in the NFL and things haven't gotten any better in the playoffs with the Matthew Stafford (367) and Baker Mayfield (349) both putting up huge totals.
Despite the huge performances from Mayfield and Stafford, the Lions still beat both of them and that's mainly because their offense played well enough to win. This week though, if Brock Purdy goes off, it's hard to imagine the Lions offense keeping up and that's mainly because it will be going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The 49ers surrendered the third-fewest points in the league this year and they gave up the eighth-fewest yards.
The upside for the Lions is that they have a one-two punch in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery that might actually be able to run on the 49ers and if they can do that, then an upset is certainly possible. If the Lions get their rushing attack going, that will take a lot of pressure off of Jared Goff, who has thrived when he's not under pressure.
Also, being able to run the ball puts the 49ers defense on its heels. The 49ers are 3-4 this year in games where they surrendered at least 100 yards rushing and two of those three wins came against the Cardinals, so I'm not even sure those actually count (The other win came in the divisional round against the Packers in a game they almost lost).
It feels like Gibbs could be the key to this game. The 49ers have struggled this year to stop running backs from catching passes out of the backfield -- they gave up 90 catches for 625 yards to running backs, which ranked in the bottom-eight of the NFL of both categories -- and if they can't stop Gibbs, that could turn into a huge offensive spark for the Lions.
Of course, the 49ers have an even deadlier offensive weapon out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who will be getting one of his biggest tests of the season. The NFL's leading rusher will be facing a Lions defense that surrendered the second-fewest rushing yards in the league this year. The Lions feel like the one team that could actually slow McCaffrey down.
The more I think about it, the more I think that this game is going to come down to whichever QB makes fewer mistakes. The Lions went 4-4 this season when Goff threw at least one pick, but 10-1 when he didn't. As for the 49ers, they're not much better when Purdy is turning the ball over: They went 2-4 in games where Purdy threw at least one pick, but 11-0 when he didn't throw any interceptions.
I'm not sure which QB I trust more and that also applies to the two coaches in this game. I trust Kyle Shanahan's offense more, but I trust Dan Campbell's in-game coaching more.
One big issue looming over this game is the availability of Deebo Samuel. The 49ers star injured his shoulder against the Packers and it's not clear if he's going to play. Samuel missed two games this year and the 49ers went 0-2 in those games.
Before this postseason started, the Lions had gone 32 years without winning a playoff game and they ended that drought. They went 32 years without a conference title game appearance and they put an end to that drought. And now, they have a chance to get to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
I feel like this game is going to go one of two ways: Either the 49ers are going to destroy the Lions and win by double digits or Detroit is going to get to its first Super Bowl by stealing the win in a close game. The Lions haven't won a road playoff game since 1957, they haven't won in San Francisco since 1975, but this feels like a team of destiny. I can't pick against destiny."
John Breech's Pick: San Francisco 49ers win 34-27
2023-24 Season Record: 83-56-0 (60%)
We hope you enjoy this week’s games and see you again next Sunday!
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Until next time,
Team TS